Overview

The world's population reached the milestone of 6 billion in 1999 and increases by around 150 persons each minute. In the last few decades, population growth seen in the light of limited natural and economic resources has become of growing concern. Now, at the beginning of a new millennium, questions are arising on what is in store for the world of the 21st century. The project resulting in this book provides an integrated modelling framework allowing us to describe, position and analyse various population issues. A systems-dynamic modelling approach is applied to describe the demographic transition as a composite of its underlying components: the epidemiological and fertility transitions. Future fertility behaviour and mortality patterns in major world regions are explored under varying socio-economic and environmental conditions by making use of the computer simulation model, PHOENIX. This project was carried out as a collaborative effort of the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and the Population Research Centre of the University of Groningen.

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