Overview

Intraseasonal atmospheric phenomena are important modulators of rainfall over South America, especially in the north of northeastern Brazil, where the state of Ceará is located. The Madden-Julian Oscillation, in turn, can influence the positioning and intensity of the Intertropical Convergence Zone - the main factor responsible for rainfall in the Northeast of Brazil (NEB). That said, this paper presents an analysis of the possible influence of the ITCZ on the NEB. The analyses are described through observations obtained from the NOAA data site, as well as through global numerical modeling. The results show that the years 2002 and 2003 have great intra-seasonal variability in the control region over the Indian Ocean - both observationally and numerically, with considerable influence on the NEB region associated with OMJ events. On the other hand, specifically for numerical modeling, using the methodology discussed for selecting a random OMJ event, the year 2011 showed strong variability on the intraseasonal time scale in the INDI control region, with an influence on the NEB region.

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