Awards

• Commended for Maurice Allais Prize in Economic Science 2015

Overview

"Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of ""expectations"" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought."

Full Product Details

Author:   Eric Barthalon
Publisher:   Columbia University Press
Imprint:   Columbia University Press
Dimensions:   Width: 15.20cm , Height: 3.60cm , Length: 22.90cm
Weight:   0.737kg
ISBN:  

9780231166287

ISBN 10:   0231166281
Pages:   448
Publication Date:   18 November 2014
Audience:   Professional and scholarly ,  College/higher education ,  Professional & Vocational ,  Postgraduate, Research & Scholarly
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   Out of stock  
The supplier is temporarily out of stock of this item. It will be ordered for you on backorder and shipped when it becomes available.
Language:   English

Table of Contents

List of Tables List of Figures Preface Acknowledgments Introduction Glossary of Mathematical Symbols in Order of Appearance Part 1. The Progressive Emergence of Expectations in Economic Theory 1. Expectations Before the Rational Expectations Revolution 2. Rational Expectations Are Endogenous to and Abide by the Model Part 2. Allais's Theory of Expectations Under Uncertainty 3. Macrofoundations of Monetary Dynamics 4. Microfoundations of Monetary Dynamics: The HRL Formulation of the Demand for Money 5. The Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics 6. Joint Testing of the HRL Formulation of the Demand for Money and of the Fundamental Equation of Monetary Dynamics Part 3. Transposing the HRL Formulation to Financial Markets: Preliminary Steps 7. Allais's HRL Formulation: Illustration of Its Dynamic Properties by an Example of Hyperinflation (Zimbabwe 2000-2008) 8. The HRL Formulation and Nominal Interest Rates Part 4. The HRL Formulation and Financial Instability 9. Perceived Returns and the Modeling of Financial Behavior 10. Downside Potential Under Risk: The Allais Paradox and Its Conflicting Interpretations 11. Downside Potential Under Uncertainty: The Perceived Risk of Loss 12. Conclusion Appendix A: How to Compute Zn and zn Appendix B: Nominal Interest Rates and the Perceived Rate of Nominal Growth Appendix C: Proofs Appendix D: Comparison Between the Kalman Filter and Allais's HRL Algorithm Appendix E: A Note on the Theory of Intertemporal Choice Appendix F: Allais's Cardinal Utility Function Notes Bibliography Index

Reviews

An outstanding job in explaining Allais' contributions and showing how his work has been under-represented in economic theory. -- Wesley Pech, Department of Economics, Wofford College

An outstanding job in explaining Allais' contributions and showing how his work has been under-represented in economic theory. -- Wesley Pech, Department of Economics, Wofford College Building on lost research work of M. Allais, this thoughtful, articulate and comprehensive re-examination of expectations has been long in gestation but well worth the intellectual investment. Theorists, experimentalists, practitioners and historians of economic ideas will all find here much of interest and value. -- Vernon Smith, Professor of Economics, Argyros School of Business and Econmics, Chapman University

Author Information

Eric Barthalon is the global head of capital markets and tactical asset allocation at Allianz Investment Management in Munich, Germany. Throughout more than three decades of exposure to capital markets in global financial institutions (at Paribas and Allianz), in which he has focused constantly on asset management, Barthalon has sought to blend operational and research responsibilities, action with theoretical reflection. He received a Masters in Management from ESCP-Europe.

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