Overview

Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, ""The Theory That Would Not Die"" is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest scientific controversies of all time. Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security. ""The Theory That Would Not Die"" is a vivid account of the generations-long dispute over one of the greatest breakthroughs in the history of applied mathematics and statistics.

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Reviews

A very compelling documented account. . .very interesting reading. --Jose Bernardo, Valencia List Blog --Jose Bernardo Valencia List Blog

Delightful ... [and] McGrayne gives a superb synopsis of the fundamental development of probability and statistics by Laplace. Scott L./i>--Physics Today Scott L. Zeger For the student who is being exposed to Bayesian statistics for the first time, McGrayne's book provides a wealth of illustrations to whet his or her appetite for more. It will broaden and deepen the field of reference of the more expert statistician, and the general reader will find an understandable, well-written, and fascinating account of a scientific field of great importance today. Andrew I./i>--Andrew I. Dale Notices of the American Mathematical Society The Theory That Would Not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475 --Andrew Robinson Nature Vol. 475 (07/28/2011) Superb. Andrew Hacker, New York Review of Books --Andrew Hacker New York Review of Books Superb.#160; New York Review of Books --Andrew Hacker New York Review of Books A masterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment . . . . Renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences. --Michael Washburn, Boston Globe --Michael Washburn Boston Globe If you''re not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be. --John Allen Paulos, New York Times Book Review --John Allen Paulos New York Times Book Review The Theory That Would Not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. --Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475 --Andrew Robinson Nature Vol. 475 (07/28/2011) A very compelling documented account. . .very interesting reading. --Jose Bernardo, Valencia List Blog --Jose Bernardo Valencia List Blog An intellectual romp touching on, among other topics, military ingenuity, the origins of modern epidemiology, and the theological foundation of modern mathematics. --Michael Washburn, Boston Globe--Michael Wasburn Boston Globe The Theory That Would Not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475--Andrew Robinson Nature Vol. 475 (07/28/2011) A very engaging book that statisticians, probabilists, and history buffs in the mathematical sciences should enjoy. David Agard, CryptologIA--David Agard CryptologIA Amasterfully researched tale of human struggle and accomplishment . . . . Renders perplexing mathematical debates digestible and vivid for even the most lay of audiences. Michael Washburn, Boston Globe--Michael Washburn Boston Globe Avery compelling documented account. . .very interesting reading. Jose Bernardo, Valencia List Blog--Jose Bernardo Valencia List Blog If you're not thinking like a Bayesian, perhaps you should be. John Allen Paulos, New York Times Book Review--John Allen Paulos New York Times Book Review Thorough research of the subject matter coupled with flowing prose, an impressive set of interviews with Bayesian statisticians, and an extremely engaging style in telling the personal stories of the few nonconformist heroes of the Bayesian school. Sam Behseta, Chance--Sam Behseta Chance Compelling, fast-paced reading full of lively characters and anecdotes. . . .A great story. Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University --Robert E. Kass Superb. Andrew Hacker, New York Review of Books--Andrew Hacker New York Review of Books Well known in statistical circles, Bayes s Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work. Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes --Andrew I. Dale (08/19/2010) Compelling, fast-paced reading full of lively characters and anecdotes. . . .A great story. --Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University --Robert E. Kass Well known in statistical circles, Bayes's Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work. -- Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes --Andrew I. Dale (08/19/2010) We now know how to think rationally about our uncertain world. This book describes in vivid prose, accessible to the lay person, the development of Bayes'' rule over more than two hundred years from an idea to its widespread acceptance in practice. --Dennis Lindley, University College London --Dennis Lindley (08/09/2010) A book simply highlighting the astonishing 200 year controversy over Bayesian analysis would have been highly welcome. This book does so much more, however, uncovering the almost secret role of Bayesian analysis in a stunning series of the most important developments of the twentieth century. What a revelation and what a delightful read! --James Berger, Arts & Sciences Professor of Statistics, Duke University, and member, National Academy of Sciences --James Berger (08/16/2010)

The Theory That Would Not Die is an impressively researched, rollicking tale of the triumph of a powerful mathematical tool. --Andrew Robinson, Nature Vol. 475 --Andrew Robinson Nature Vol. 475 (07/28/2011)

Compelling, fast-paced reading full of lively characters and anecdotes. . . .A great story. --Robert E. Kass, Carnegie Mellon University<br><br>--Robert E. Kass

Well known in statistical circles, Bayes's Theorem was first given in a posthumous paper by the English clergyman Thomas Bayes in the mid-eighteenth century. McGrayne provides a fascinating account of the modern use of this result in matters as diverse as cryptography, assurance, the investigation of the connection between smoking and cancer, RAND, the identification of the author of certain papers in The Federalist, election forecasting and the search for a missing H-bomb. The general reader will enjoy her easy style and the way in which she has successfully illustrated the use of a result of prime importance in scientific work. -- Andrew I. Dale, author of A History of Inverse Probability From Thomas Bayes to Karl Pearson and Most Honorable Remembrance: The Life and Work of Thomas Bayes <br>--Andrew I. Dale (08/19/2010)

Author Information

Sharon Bertsch McGrayne is the author of numerous books, including Nobel Prize Women in Science: Their Lives, Struggles, and Momentous Discoveries and Prometheans in the Lab: Chemistry and the Making of the Modern World. She is a prize-winning former reporter for Scripps-Howard, Gannett, Crain's, and other newspapers and has spoken at many scientific conferences, national laboratories, and universities in the United States and abroad.

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