Overview

Strategy is often treated as either intuition or calculation. On one side, it is reduced to instinct and experience. On the other, it is treated as a problem of formulas, optimization, or technique. The Limits of Prediction and the Primacy of Coherence argues that both views miss the deeper structure of failure and recovery. This book develops a diagnostic framework for understanding why systems often collapse before decisive action begins. It shows how pressure erodes margin, how coherence degrades invisibly, and why prediction can become ill-posed when the conditions for inference no longer hold. Rather than offering tactics or shortcuts, it clarifies the boundary between uncertainty and missingness, execution problems and structural breakdown. Drawing on philosophy of science, systems thinking, cognitive science, and strategic theory, the book introduces a disciplined vocabulary of coherence, structural memory, identity continuity, admissibility, and breakdown. The goal is not to promise better forecasts, but to help readers recognize when familiar tools stop applying and what responsible action looks like under constraint. This book is for readers who want clarity without hype. It is written for serious general readers, practitioners working under real pressure, and thinkers interested in the limits of prediction, control, and optimization in complex systems. Inside you will find: A clear account of why failure often occurs before action begins A framework for understanding pressure, irreversibility, and loss of margin A theory of structural memory and identity continuity in systems A missingness-aware view of admissibility and the limits of inference An analysis of predictive processing under breakdown and conditions for recovery Carefully stated limits: what this framework does and does not claim If you have felt that ""better models"" and ""more data"" are not enough, this book offers a deeper diagnostic lens: coherence first, prediction second.

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