Overview

A mathematical model can describe survey data quite well if the random mechanism generating the observations can be approximated by a suitable probability model. The Coale-McNeil model is a very good example. It accurately describes the profile of age at first marriage for women in Western countries. In this research, Zhiwu Liang presents a complete description of the Coale-McNeil model and discusses a more general model, the double-exponential distribution. He reveals the properties of the parameters of the double-exponential distribution, and shows the relationship to the extreme value distribution, the Weibull distribution, the log-gamma distribution and the normal distribution. Furthermore, he demonstrates that the double-exponential distribution can be used to describe the age at first marriage, age at first birth, age at second birth, and the second birth interval in developing countries. The model is applied to life-history survey data from India and China.

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