Overview

When it comes to the Arctic, there is no lack of planning, debating, studying, or shortage of opinions as to what the U.S. should or should not do in this region of extremes. Should the United States spend billions on icebreakers that when completed may not have ice to break, ignore the region and hope the rest of the world follows suit, or worse, militarize the region for an unknown future threat? Given the budget-constrained environment and lack of threat to the U.S. national security from the Arctic, is there another option or method to allow policy makers to envision a different future for the Arctic, one requiring them to wait and do nothing, knowing with some certainty that taking no action is the right decision at this moment in time? Using scenario planning, this thesis examines four future scenarios for the Arctic and evaluates the strategic patience and persistence strategy introduced in the 2015 National Security Strategy to understand better the costs, risks, and benefits of doing little or nothing in the Arctic. Given the uncertainties in the Arctic and faced with greater threats to the homeland, the strategic patience and persistence strategy is a viable approach to pursue in the Arctic, which allows the U.S. to achieve its national Arctic goals. I. INTRODUCTION * A. PROBLEM SPACE * 1. Background * 2. National Goals for the Arctic * 3. Summary * B. RESEARCH QUESTION * C. THESIS OUTLINE * II. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. OVERVIEW * B. DIPLOMATIC * C. CLIMATE CHANGE * D. AIR AND MARITIME SAFETY * E. ENERGY SECURITY * F. HOMELAND SECURITY * G. CONCLUSION * III. METHOD * A. SCENARIO PLANNING * 1. Background * 2. Models - Simulations - Games * B. SCENARIOS * 1. Background * 2. Development of Scenarios * 3. Steps to Develop a Scenario * C. CONCLUSION * IV. STRATEGIC PATIENCE AND PERSISTENCE STRATEGY * A. KEEPING YOUR POWDER DRY * 1. Theory of Strategy Absence * 2. Decision Avoidance * 3. Real Options * 4. Conclusion * B. A STRATEGY IN SEARCH OF MEANING? * C. CONCLUSION * V. SCENARIOS AND RESULTS * A. INTRODUCTION * B. SCENARIO 1: NEW SPICE ROUTE * C. SCENARIO 2: ARCTIC RENAISSANCE * D. SCENARIO 3: SOCHI AGREEMENT * E. SCENARIO 4: ARCTIC RUSSIAN BEAR * F. SUMMARY * VI. FINDINGS * A. EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRATEGIC PATIENCE AND PERSISTENCE STRATEGY. * 1. New Spice Route Outcome * 2. Arctic Renaissance Outcome * 3. Sochi Agreement Outcome * 4. Arctic Russian Bear Outcome * B. CONCLUSIONS * VII. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS * A. WRAP-UP * B. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR POLICY MAKERS * C. FUTURE RESEARCH / OPEN QUESTIONS

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9781983276200

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