Overview

Sustainability of pension systems, intergeneration fiscal equity under population aging, and accounting for health care benefits for future retirees are examples of problems that cannot be solved without understanding the nature of population forecasts and their uncertainty. Similarly, the accuracy of population estimates directly affects both the distributions of formula-based government allocations to sub-national units and the apportionment of political representation. The book develops the statistical foundation for addressing such issues. Areas covered include classical mathematical demography, event history methods, multi-state methods, stochastic population forecasting, sampling and census coverage, and decision theory. The methods are illustrated with empirical applications from Europe and the U.S.For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. To facilitate its classroom use, exercises are included. Over half of the book is readily accessible to undergraduates, but more maturity may be required to benefit fully from the complete text. Knowledge of differential and integral calculus, matrix algebra, basic probability theory, and regression analysis is assumed.Juha M. Alho is Professor of Statistics, University of Joensuu, Finland, and Bruce D. Spencer is Professor of Statistics and Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University. Both have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.

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Reviews

From the reviews of the first edition: <p> The book will be useful for teachers, researchers and consultants dealing with formulation of statistical models, estimation and forecasting in demography. Those interested in deeper understanding of a particular issue will find a good number of references from journals and reports published during the last ten years. Population Review, Vol. 44, No. 2, Section 3, 2005 <p> The book discusses much of the statistical theory and methodology for estimating and forecasting population growth and its components a ] . Some interesting financial applications are also presented. Quite a number of real world and stimulating examples are an added attraction of the book. The book will serve as a handbook of statistical demography. Also it may very well be used as a textbook in any advanced course on the subject. The book represents careful efforts from the authors. The presentation is lucid and informative. (Atanu Biswas, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2006 g) <p> This book was written to bring together much of the basic statistical theory and methodology for estimating and forecasting population growth and its components a ] . For statisticians the book provides a unique introduction to demographic problems a ] . For demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists and professionals in related fields, the book presents a unified statistical outlook a ] . There are many results that have appeared in journals or working papers only. Some appear here for the first time and make this book, very important and useful. (T. Postelnicu, Zentralblatt MATH, Vol. 1080, 2006) <p> This book represents a quite complete review of main statistical techniques in demography. It isvery well structured as a course guide, both at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, but it is also useful as a reference text for consultants in the field. ( M. Ruiz Espejo and F.J. Montero, Biometrics, December 2006) <p> This book is both novel and unique in its undertaking to combine theoretical models from two fields, guided by practical questions from the real world, and to provide solutions that truly reflect the full complexity of the problems. (Jutta Gampe, European Journal of Population, 23: 105-107, 2007) <p> This book is well written and interesting to read, with a good mixture of theory and applications. ...[It] is a must buy for every statistician interested in demography and every demographer interestd in expanding his knowledge of statistical methodology. (Andreas Karlsson, Psychometrika, Vol. 72, No. 2, June 2007)

From the reviews: The book will be useful for teachers, researchers and consultants dealing with formulation of statistical models, estimation and forecasting in demography. Those interested in deeper understanding of a particular issue will find a good number of references from journals and reports published during the last ten years. Population Review, Vol. 44, No. 2, Section 3, 2005 This book is a most useful guide to the literature intersecting demography and statistics. ... the book is of almost encyclopedic coverage of topics; almost any conceivable demography related problem area at least is mentioned. References and indices are impressive also. Due to the wide coverage the book will be a good buy for any statistics library. (Gotz Uebe, Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Issue 3, 2006) The new book by Alho and Spencer is focused on putting a better emphasis on statistics in the discipline of demography ... . The authors are both statisticians, so the focus is on statistics as used for demographic problems. The authors are targeting human applications, so their perspective on science does not extend any further than epidemiology. The book actually strikes a good balance between statistical tools and demographic applications. (Technometrics, Vol. 48 (3), 2006) This book contains extensive discussions on various issues in demography with emphasis on the application of statistical models ... . the topics are introduced lucidly and are accompanied by more than 150 illustrative examples and 33 figures. The empirical examples highlight interesting problems in demography and add substantially to the usefulness of the book. ... The book will be extremely useful to a statistician who wants to learn about demographic problems ... . It is also highly recommended for demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists ... . (Mausumi Bose, Sankhya, Vol. 68 (2), 2006) This book is well written and interesting to read, with a good mixture of theory and applications. ...[It] is a must buy for every statistician interested in demography and every demographer interestd in expanding his knowledge of statistical methodology. (Andreas Karlsson, Psychometrika, Vol. 72, No. 2, June 2007)

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