Overview

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or mad cow disease, first diagnosed in late 1986, is transmitted through feed, indirect horizontal transmission, apparently maternally and possibly horizontally, through cattle-to-cattle contact or a contaminated environment. With no ante-mortem test yet developed, the only information available about BSE is from case surveillance and a limited number of experiments. Only through careful and rigorous modeling and analysis can reliable estimates of past infection and predictions of future cases be made. The modeling developed for BSE utilizes a range of techniques from statistics, ecology, and demography that is of interest both as a case study and for providing tools for other modeling projects. Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics presents the general methodology required for thorough analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology. BSE in British cattle is the primary example system presented, but application to other diseases, particularly the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (e.g., Scrapie in sheep and nvCJD in humans) are also highlighted. The book concentrates on presenting an exposition of the state-of-the-art rather than introductory material on the mathematical/statistical modeling of infectious diseases.

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9780849303869

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Reviews

In addition to the obvious value from the assessment of the particular diseases in this book, the authors have laid out a nice template for anyone who is doing a similarly thorough assessment of a complex epidemiological system. For the most part, the book is easily readable by either statisticians or biologists... -Technometrics, May 2001 The book is well written and interesting to read...authors claim that they aim to unify biostatistical and mathematical biology approaches and I think that they meet this aim fairly well. --David Greenhalgh, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow In their 'must-read' book, Donnelly and Ferguson espouse that models of complex disease transmission dynamics should be placed in proper statistical context to ensure robust parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis, and to disallow over-exact fitting to observed data... This well-proofed book has significant appeal for statisticians interested in dynamical modelling of transmission mechanisms, mathematical modellers wanting to employ more rigorous statistical methods, and biological/medical/veterinary scientists who seek a quantitative understanding of BSE and vCJD. Biometrics, Vol. 56, No. 4, December 2000 A timely book such as this, which is thought-provoking and challenging at different levels, is an excellent addition [number 84] to the series of Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Biometrics, Vol. 56, No. 4, December 2000 The book provides a comprehensive view of BSE modeling as seen from the backroom. -Nature, January 2000

In addition to the obvious value from the assessment of the particular diseases in this book, the authors have laid out a nice template for anyone who is doing a similarly thorough assessment of a complex epidemiological system. For the most part, the book is easily readable by either statisticians or biologists -Technometrics, May 2001 The book is well written and interesting to readauthors claim that they aim to unify biostatistical and mathematical biology approaches and I think that they meet this aim fairly well. --David Greenhalgh, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow In their 'must-read' book, Donnelly and Ferguson espouse that models of complex disease transmission dynamics should be placed in proper statistical context to ensure robust parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis, and to disallow over-exact fitting to observed data This well-proofed book has significant appeal for statisticians interested in dynamical modelling of transmission mechanisms, mathematical modellers wanting to employ more rigorous statistical methods, and biological/medical/veterinary scientists who seek a quantitative understanding of BSE and vCJD. Biometrics, Vol. 56, No. 4, December 2000 A timely book such as this, which is thought-provoking and challenging at different levels, is an excellent addition [number 84] to the series of Monographs on Statistics and Applied Probability. Biometrics, Vol. 56, No. 4, December 2000 The book provides a comprehensive view of BSE modeling as seen from the backroom. -Nature, January 2000

Author Information

Donnelly\, C A; Ferguson\, N M

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