Small Probabilities and High Stakes

Author:   Christian Tarsney (University of Toronto)
Publisher:   Cambridge University Press
ISBN:  

9781009333030


Pages:   75
Publication Date:   28 February 2026
Format:   Paperback
Availability:   Not yet available, will be POD   Availability explained
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Small Probabilities and High Stakes


Overview

What price should you be willing to pay for a tiny probability of an astronomically large gain, or to avoid a tiny probability of an astronomically large loss? Should you be willing to pay any finite price, if the potential gains or losses are large enough? Fanaticism says you should, while anti-fanaticism says you should not. Focusing on morally motivated decision-making, this Element explores arguments for and against both positions, ultimately defending the intermediate view that rationality permits a range of dispositions toward extreme risks, while ruling out the most comprehensive forms of both fanaticism and anti-fanaticism. The final section considers practical implications, arguing that under real-world circumstances any view satisfying a minimal principle of rationality must very often rank options by expected value, and thus sometimes give great weight to intuitively small probabilities, but that we nonetheless retain rational flexibility in sufficiently extreme cases.

Full Product Details

Author:   Christian Tarsney (University of Toronto)
Publisher:   Cambridge University Press
Imprint:   Cambridge University Press
ISBN:  

9781009333030


ISBN 10:   1009333038
Pages:   75
Publication Date:   28 February 2026
Audience:   General/trade ,  General
Format:   Paperback
Publisher's Status:   Forthcoming
Availability:   Not yet available, will be POD   Availability explained
This item is yet to be released. You can pre-order this item and we will dispatch it to you upon it's release. This is a print on demand item which is still yet to be released.

Table of Contents

1. Introduction; 2. Fanaticism and anti-fanaticism; 3. The case for fanaticism; 4. The case against fanaticism; 5. The case for anti-fanaticism; 6. The case against anti-fanaticism; 7. The permissivist synthesis; 8. Fanaticism, anti-fanaticism, and permissivism in practice; 9. Conclusion; References.

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Latest Reading Guide

NOV RG 20252

 

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