Overview

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of Russia's foreign policy in gray zone conflicts, with a particular focus on its interventions in Ukraine. Challenging conventional views, the book contends that Russia's use of varied gray zone tactics is influenced by both system-level incentives and domestic-level opportunities, which are integrated here into the Incentive-Opportunity Intervention (IOI) Model. The book examines case studies including Abkhazia, Crimea, Odesa, Kharkiv, and the Donbas, demonstrating how local ethnic-based movements and perceptions of regional retreat shape Moscow's coercive strategies. It highlights the reactive nature of Russia's tactics, driven by perceived threats to its protector role, and the significant role of ethnic and political dynamics in the region. The study underscores the importance of understanding these motivations for effective conflict resolution and suggests that protecting minority rights could mitigate such interventions. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for nuanced approaches that address both geopolitical and local dynamics. Ultimately, the book calls for future research to apply the IOI Model to other great powers, enhance the generalizability and applicability of the findings, and highlight the potential for multilateral coordination in promoting minority rights as a strategy for conflict prevention. This book will be of much interest to students and policy practitioners working on Russian foreign policy, international security, Eastern European politics, and International Relations

Full Product Details

Author:   Dani Belo
Publisher:   Taylor & Francis Ltd
Imprint:   Routledge
Weight:   0.600kg
ISBN:  

9781032759173

ISBN 10:   1032759178
Pages:   280
Publication Date:   18 July 2025
Audience:   College/higher education ,  Professional and scholarly ,  Tertiary & Higher Education ,  Professional & Vocational
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   Not yet available  
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Table of Contents

Chapter 1: The Value of Combining System and Domestic Dimensions to Explain Gray Zone Conflict Behavior Chapter 2: Incentive-Opportunity Intervention (IOI) Model: Combining System Incentives and Domestic Costs of Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 3: Russia’s Campaign in Abkhazia: Assessing the High Incentive and Opportunity for Gray Zone Coercion Chapter 4: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Crimea: The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Deploying the “Little Green Men” Chapter 5: Russia’s Gray Zone Activities in Odesa: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 6: Russia’s Gray Zone Engagement in Kharkiv: Assessing the Low Incentive and Opportunity for Coercion Chapter 7: Russia’s Restrained Gray Zone Coercion in the Donbas: A Function of Moderate Benefits and Uncertain Costs Chapter 8: Russia’s Militarized Campaign in Ukraine After 2022: A Continuation of an Old Pattern Chapter 9: Conclusion

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Author Information

Dani Belo is an Assistant Professor of International Relations and Security and Director of the Global Policy Horizons Research Lab, Webster University in St. Louis, USA.

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