Overview

Numbers have always promised to make war predictable. They rarely succeed. From Trevor Dupuy's Quantified Judgment Model to today's AI-driven decision systems, military science has been seduced by quantification-yet plagued by pseudo-precision. Quantifying War: Epistemology and Measurement in Military Science is the first comprehensive critique of this tradition and a blueprint for a new, rigorous approach. Drawing on philosophy of science, measurement theory, psychometrics, stochastic dynamics, and machine learning, this groundbreaking study reveals why deterministic combat models fail-and how to build alternatives that embrace uncertainty while remaining scientifically robust. Covering case studies from World War II to Ukraine and analyzing frameworks across Anglo-American, Soviet, Chinese, Israeli, and non-Western traditions, the book bridges disciplinary divides between mathematics, military studies, and epistemology. It offers military officers, defense analysts, policymakers, and scholars a powerful new framework: one that resists illusion, integrates cultural perspectives, and restores intellectual honesty to the science of war. For anyone concerned with the future of military science, defense planning, or the epistemology of AI in warfare, this book provides both a devastating critique of past failures and a constructive path forward. Dr. Cor P.M. van Houte, former Navy servicemember and military analyst.

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