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Author:   Rachel Z Friedman
Publisher:   The University of Chicago Press
Imprint:   University of Chicago Press
ISBN:  

9780226730769

ISBN 10:   022673076
Pages:   272
Publication Date:   22 September 2020
Audience:   General/trade ,  General
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   Manufactured on demand  
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Table of Contents

Introduction Chapter 1: The Origins of Risk and the Growth of Insurance Insurance: A Brief Primer The Early History of Modern Insurance Probability Theory and the Doctrine of Aleatory Contracts Life Insurance and Probabilistic Justice Chapter 2: Probabilistic Justice and the Beginnings of Social Insurance Precursors to Social Insurance The First Social Insurance Plans: Mutual Insurance Writ Large Chapter 3: The Promise of Probability The Practical Aims of Late-Classical Probability Between Individual Choice and Social Responsibility Social Insurance in Theory and in Practice Chapter 4: The Collectivization of Risk and the Early Welfare States The Rise of the Collective View of Chance Risk in the Early Welfare States Chapter 5: The Egalitarian Welfare State and the Ambiguities of Insurance The Egalitarian Welfare State Emerges Subjective Probability and the Personalization of Chance The Egalitarian Welfare State without Probability The Fate of Social Insurance in the Twentieth Century and Beyond Conclusion Acknowledgments Notes Index

Reviews

Friedman powerfully brings together three traditions of thought: theory on risk and probability, ethical principles of distributive justice, and political theory on the purpose of social insurance or the welfare state. Her image of civil society as a great mutual insurer with coercive power will reorient political thinking on the welfare state. --James Franklin, author of The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal Friedman's thoughtful and thought-provoking study reveals how diverse conceptions of probability have always been morally tinged. Whether framed as prudential individualism, frequentist solidarity, or a subjective bet, how we calculate risk turns out to have far-reaching consequences for how we think about what the state owes its citizens and citizens owe each other. --Lorraine Daston, coauthor of How Reason Almost Lost Its Mind: The Strange Career of Cold War Rationality Probable Justice?advances a strikingly original--and quite brilliant--argument about the common duality of probability as a philosophical concept and social insurance as a political expedient, both of which Friedman reveals are essentially 'Janus-faced.' --William P. Deringer, author of Calculated Values: Finance, Politics, and the Quantitative Age Probable Justice is a brilliant synthesis of the history of insurance and theories of probability. It combines social theory (e.g., social insurance and the welfare state) with an outstanding discussion of the ambiguities in probability theory. One of the most illuminating books I have encountered on the influence of probabilistic ideas on theories of justice. --Morton Horwitz, author of The Warren Court and the Pursuit of Justice

Author Information

Rachel Z. Friedman is a member of the Buchmann Faculty of Law and a faculty affiliate of the Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics at Tel Aviv University.

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