Overview

State failure, ethnopolitical war, genocide, famine and refugee flows are variants of a type of complex political and humanitarian crisis, exemplified during the 1990s in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Liberia and Afghanistan. The international consequences of such crises are profound, often threatening regional security and requiring major inputs of humanitarian assistance. They also may pose long-term and costly challenges of rebuilding shattered governments and societies. A vital policy question is whether failures can be diagnosed far enough in advance to facilitate effective international efforts at prevention or peaceful transformation. This volume of essays examines crisis early warning factors at different levels, in different settings, and judges their effectiveness according to various models. The contributors offer answers along with analyses as they move from early warning to early response in their policy recommendations. The contributors include Adeel Ahmed, Doug Bond, John L. Davies, Jack Goldstone, Charles J. Jefferson, Donald Krumm, Craig Jenkins, Anne L. Speca and William P. Whelan.

Full Product Details

Author:   John L. Davies ,  Adeel Ahmed ,  Günther Baechler ,  Doug Bond
Publisher:   Rowman & Littlefield
Imprint:   Rowman & Littlefield
Dimensions:   Width: 15.80cm , Height: 2.30cm , Length: 23.50cm
Weight:   0.567kg
ISBN:  

9780847688739

ISBN 10:   0847688739
Pages:   300
Publication Date:   10 September 1998
Audience:   College/higher education ,  Professional and scholarly ,  Undergraduate ,  Postgraduate, Research & Scholarly
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   In Print  
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Table of Contents

Chapter 1 Preventive Measures: An Overview Part 2 Part I: Structural Indicators and Risk Assessment Models Chapter 3 A Risk Assessment Model of Ethnopolitical Rebellion Chapter 4 The State Failure Project: Early Warning Research for U.S. Foreign Policy Planning Chapter 5 Indicator Development: Issues in Forecasting Conflict Escalation Chapter 6 Early Warning Indicators of Forced Migration Part 7 Part II: Dynamic Indicators and Early Warning Models Chapter 8 Early Warning of Humanitarian Crises: Sequential Models and the Role of Accelerators Chapter 9 Dynamic Data for Conflict Early Warning Chapter 10 Cluster Analysis as an Early Warning Technique for the Middle East Chapter 11 Timely Conflict Risk Assessments and the PANDA Project Chapter 12 A Pattern Recognition Approach to Conflict Early Warning Part 13 Part III. Specialized Models and Applications Chapter 14 Early Warning of Environmentally Caused Conflicts Chapter 15 An Expert System for Assessing Vulnerability to Instability Chapter 16 The FUGI Model as a Global Early Warning System for Refugees Chapter 17 Human Rights Abuses and Arms Trafficking in Central Africa Chapter 18 FAST: A Pilot Study for an Early Warning System for the Swiss Foreign Ministry Part 19 Part IV: Public Sector Information and Early Warning Systems Chapter 20 The Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture Chapter 21 USAID's Famine Early Warning System Chapter 22 The Humanitarian Early Warning System: From Concept to Practice Chapter 23 ReliefWeb: An International Information Management Tool Chapter 24 The Role of Early Warning in the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees Part 25 Part V. From Early Warning to Early Response Chapter 26 Towards Response-Oriented Early Warning Analysis Chapter 27 Information Sharing and Early Warning Chapter 28 Early Warning: An Action Agenda

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Author Information

John L. Davies is director of the Global Events Data System Project at the Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) and assistant professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, College Park. Ted Robert Gurr is distinguished university professor, professor of government and politics, and distinguished scholar at CIDCM at the University of Maryland, College Park.

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