Overview

IndoPakistani relations are shadowed by nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles may soon be deployed. Neil Joeck argues that basic nuclear capabilities have not created strategic stability. They neither explain the absence of war over the past decade nor why war is currently unlikely. While limited nuclear capabilities increase the costs of conflict, they do little to reduce the risk of it occurring. The author asserts that the development of command and control mechanisms would enhance stability in a crisis and improve India and Pakistan's ability to avoid nuclear use if war breaks out, and that diplomatic steps focused in particular on missiles must also be considered. With nuclear weapons in hand, the price if deterrence fails is high. Investing more resources on a bet that nuclear capabilities ensure safety only raises the penalties if the initial decision was wrong. Neil Joeck proposes command and control and diplomatic engagement as providing some insurance that, if that bet is called, nuclear use is not the only choice left.

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9780198294061

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Neil Joeck is currently on sabbatical leave working as a Research Associate at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He is employed as a political analyst in the Directorate for Nonproliferationm Arns Control and International Security and the Center for Global Security Research at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California, USA. His primary area of concern is nuclear proliferation and South Asian security, and he has also recently completed research projects on nuclear use doctrine and North-east Asian security issues. Dr Joeck was also a member of the US Council on Foreign Relations 1996 Task Force on South Asia. He has contributed to the Journal of Strategic Studies, Energy and Technology Review, and the Los Angeles Times, as well as chapters in a number of edited books and LLNL reports to the US government.

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