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Part ThreeEconomy And Marketing Predictive MethodChapter OnePsychological method predictsconsumer behavior1.1Can apply economic models solve marketing changing challenges?Economists indicate economic modeling can provide a logical, data to help organize the analyst's thoughts. The model helps the economist logically isolate and sort out complicated chains of cause and effect and influence between the numerous interacting elements in an economy. There are four types of models used in economic analysis: Visual models, mathematical models, empirical models and simulation models.Visual models are simply pictures of an abstract economy: graphs will lines and curves that tell an economic story. It is one kind of micro or macro-economic method to predict consumer behavioral change. Some visual models are diagrammatic such as which flow the income thought the economy from one sector to another ( micro economic environment). It is mathematical model, when it is presented the mathematics are explained what the data analysis is or not. The model does not normally require a knowledge of mathematics, but still allow the presentation of complex relationship between economic variable.For example, the common supply-and demand model is meant to show the effect of inflationary expectations upon price and output. In this application, an increase in inflationary expectations causes demand to shift, raising prices and outputs (macro-economic environment). For another example, a very simple micro-economic model would include a supply function (explaining the behavior of products or those who supply commodities to the market), a demand curve ( explaining the behavior of purchasers) and an equilibrium equation, specifying the simple conditions that must be met if the model's equilibrium is to be satisfied. So, the variables in a model like this represent a type of economic activity (such as demand) or data ( information ) that either determines or is determined by that activity ( such as a price or interest rate variable change activity).Dynamic models, in contrast, directly incorporate time into their structure. This is usually done in economic modeling by this mathematical systems of difference of differential equations. For example, it can use a difference equation from a business cycle model, investment now depends upon changes in income in the past. Time is incorporated into the model. Dynamic models, when they can be used, sometimes better represent the business cycles, because certainly behavioral response and timing strongly shape the character of a cycle. For another example, if there is a delay between the time income is received and when it is spent. A model that can capture the delay is likely to those higher consumption desire to the consumer. It is a micro-personal behavioral consumption predict method. So, the user can experiment with an endless variety of values and assumptions to see whether results obtained are realistic or insightful. Since computers are now powerful and cheaper, the importance of dynamic simulation models should follow the future prediction time, when the consumer income receive and when it is spent to predict how much degree of the consumer's consumption desire in micro-economic view point.Another model to be applied to predict consumption behavior. It is expectations and enhanced model, it includes one or more variables based upon economic expectations about future values. For example, if consumers for whatever reason, expect the inflation rate to be much higher next year, then this year, they are said to have formed inflationary expectations. If numerical values are being used in a model and the current inflation rate is 9%, if they expect inflation to be higher next year, the variable for inflationary expectations might be given be a value if 12% or more.

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