Overview

"The increase in the ""incumbency effect"" has long dominated as a research focus and as a framework for interpreting congressional elections. This important new book challenges the empirical claim that incumbents are doing better and the research paradigm that accompanied the claim. It also offers an alternative interpretation of House elections since the 1960s. In a style that is provocative yet fair, learned, and transparent, Jeffrey Stonecash makes a two-pronged argument: frameworks and methodologies suffer when they stop being critically considered, and patterns of House elections over the long term actually reflect party change and realignment. A must-read for scholars and students of congressional elections."

Full Product Details

Author:   Jeffrey M. Stonecash
Publisher:   Taylor & Francis Ltd
Imprint:   Routledge
Weight:   0.385kg
ISBN:  

9781138479876

ISBN 10:   113847987
Pages:   238
Publication Date:   13 June 2018
Audience:   College/higher education ,  Professional and scholarly ,  Tertiary & Higher Education ,  Professional & Vocational
Format:   Paperback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   In Print  
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Table of Contents

Part I: A Conventional Wisdom and Its Importance 1. The Fortunes of Incumbents and Interpreting Political Change 2. Vanishing Marginals, a Research Agenda, and Political Responsiveness Part II: The Data and Doubts 3. The Basics: Percentages, Averages, and Careers 4. The Presidential–House Connection Issue 5. The Gelman-King Estimation (and the Role of Open Seats) Part III: The Role and Emergence of a Paradigm 6. The Puzzle and an Interpretative Framework: Kuhn 7. Embracing One Paradigm and Discarding Another 8. A Consensus and Normal Science 9. Embracing and Sustaining a Paradigm: Why? Part IV: An Alternative 10. An Alternative Framework and Analysis 11. Paradigms and Understanding American Politics Bibliography Index

Reviews

Praise for Interpreting Congressional Elections In this provocative book, Jeffrey Stonecash challenges one of American political science's central findings of the past half-century: the increased safety of congressional incumbents. Demonstrating that powerful normative assumptions have been built around what is essentially a data artifact, he persuasively argues that incumbency advantages are repeatedly misidentified and miscalculated by ignoring strategic retirements, partisan differences, and long-term realignment. Seth Masket, University of Denver

Author Information

Jeffrey M. Stonecash is Emeritus Maxwell Professor of Political Science at Syracuse University. He is the author or editor of over twenty books on American political parties, polling, and elections.

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