Overview

Intelligence Analysis for Global Politics bridges the gap between practice and academia by exploring how analytical techniques developed by practitioners in strategic sectors such as intelligence, defense, business, and development, who regularly deal with global uncertainty, can enrich academic analysis in the fields of politics, international relations (IR), public policy, and business. What lessons can academics learn from those who decode global politics in their daily practice? Over the years, practitioners have developed effective techniques designed specifically to minimize analytical failures, enhance accuracy, and improve readiness for future scenarios. This book introduces these methodologies and explains the underlying premises behind their creation across four strategic sectors — intelligence, defense, business, and development — demonstrating their relevance and applicability within academic contexts. Chapter 1 sets the context, including a discussion of recent global trends and core academic concepts. Chapter 2 examines the intelligence community, highlighting techniques developed from historical analytical failures and emphasizing methods for effectively gathering, managing, analyzing, and communicating information. Chapter 3 focuses on the defense sector, illustrating how foresight methodologies such as role-playing and war-gaming actively simulate scenarios to enhance preparedness and refine scenario-building processes. Chapter 4 explores business practices, particularly political risk analysis (PRA), detailing analytical frameworks and indicators businesses employ to manage global uncertainty. Chapter 5 discusses development and cooperation actors, emphasizing their specialization in early warning systems and predictive indicators for humanitarian crises. Finally, Chapter 6 synthesizes these insights, demonstrating how they can be effectively integrated into academic research within IR and politics. This book will draw great interest to student courses in IR, PRA, intelligence studies, security studies, and geopolitics. Beyond academia, the book will appeal to practitioners in intelligence agencies, private sector risk consultancies, multinational corporations (MNCs), and NGOs seeking to learn boarder practical tools to analyze geopolitical risks.

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9781041143567

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Author Information

Manfredi Valeriani is a researcher in foreign policy analysis (FPA), political risk, wargaming, foresight, and intelligence analysis. He holds a Marie Curie Double PhD from the University of Hamburg and LUISS Guido Carli. Currently, Valeriani works as the scientific coordinator at CISS and the creator of the wargame “Global Tensions”, a tool used at CISS both in research and in education to explore the use of war-gaming in IR. He is deeply engaged in teaching and research, having designed and delivered courses such as analytic and foresight techniques for IR and PRA at LUISS, in addition to courses at the American University of Rome and the University “L’Orientale” in Naples.

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