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This paper addresses how strategic effects win and lose wars. Strategic effects are defined here as the impacts that the outcomes from wartime operational and tactical events have on the highest level of decision-makers. Building on concepts proposed by Thomas Schelling, Robert Pape and John Warden, it proposes a model that can be incorporated into the artificial intelligence routines of a computer-based strategic wargame to simulate the goals and will of either or both sides in a conflict. This proposed model is called the value-based strategic effects model (VBSEM). VBSEM essentially provides rules for determining the value of each side in a conflict and then has each side behave according to economic and risk management formulas relative to actual and potential changes in that value. The underlying assumption is each side will ultimately act in its own best interest (as they define their best interest) based on the information available. This paper looks at symmetrical and asymmetrical strategic effects. Finally it offers advice on how VBSEM can be incorporated in a computer-based strategic wargame. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

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