Overview

This book offers four scenarios for 2035 to help you think through aspects of the world in that year. My approach is geared towards the financial domain rather than geopolitics or military, but you will find in this book in-depth analysis of current geostrategic trends as they unquestionably impact markets. The method followed consists of defining plausible, sufficiently divergent, and intrinsically coherent scenarios. Without trying to give meaning to history. We have also considered megatrends but without repeating their description in each scenario unless they have a particular variant or importance in the scenario in question. Why this edition matters now. The pace and interconnectedness of disruption have increased across technology, geopolitics, climate, and markets, creating an environment where traditional single-path forecasts fail and planning paralysis is common. Generative AI, fast-moving policy shifts, and cascading climate and supply-chain shocks now force organisations to maintain hundreds of contingent options rather than a handful of backups. Scenario practice must therefore be faster, more iterative, and better integrated with decision rights and capital allocation than conventional multi-week exercises. My promise to the reader After working through this book, you will be able to convene a rapid scenario game, translate narratives into quantitative portfolio tests, and stand up a signpost and governance process which moves an organisation from passive awareness to funded readiness.

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