Overview

The Russian aggression in 2014 was an event that caught the United States and its NATO allies by surprise. The reexamination of the U.S.-Russian relationship in the past 12 months has led to a renewed search for insight into modern Russia. That search has resulted in a greater understanding of the 'Russian system' and the forces of stasis and change at work on its various components. This project, described in this publication, used systems thinking design methods to analyze and collaborate, leading to increased understanding of the Russian system. The subsequent wargame was tied to the design approach and led to richer levels of structured collaboration, which permitted a more in-depth analysis of Russia and U.S. policy toward Russia. The structure of the wargame was based on scenarios and questions that Russia, the United States, and Europe will most likely face in the near to midterm. Exploring these questions shed light into how each side thought about issues, priorities, risk, and alternatives when developing policy and strategy. Russian aggression in 2014 caught U.S. policy and strategy off-guard, forcing reactive measures and reevaluation of the U.S. approach toward Russia. Moscow employed nonlinear methodologies and operated just beneath traditional thresholds of conflict to take full advantage of U.S. and NATO policy and process limitations. In light of this strategic problem, the U.S. Army War College (USAWC), conducted a wargame that revealed four key considerations for future policy and strategy: - The U.S. must shift from a mostly cooperative approach towards Russia to one that recognizes the competitive nature of Moscow strategy. - U.S. policy must clearly articulate its position toward Russia, Eastern Europe, and Ukraine - U.S. policy must challenge Russia in the competition of ideas and influence - U.S. policy must account for the two national election cycles in 2016 and 2018 Related products: Soviet American Relations the Detente Years, 1969-1972 can be found here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02616-3 The Turning Point for Russian Foreign Policy can be found here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-000-01249-1 Russia and the Soviet Union resources collection is available here: https: //bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/international-foreign-affairs/russia-soviet-union

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