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It is fascinating to review the diverse forecasts that experts have made in recent years about China's politics, economy, environment, and international relations. How is it possible that they disagree so much? Irvine wisely counsels caution, insisting that we must allow critical uncertainties to temper our ambition to know the future. Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Columbia University In all the discussion over the implications of China's rise, one of the knottiest questions is just what sort of a China is it going to be. Roger Irvine offers a unique and path-breaking contribution to the task of forecasting China's role, with special attention paid to the relationship between China experts and the uncertainty that is intrinsic to this challenging but necessary enterprise. His balancing of theory with practical case studies of prediction across a variety of fields is exemplary, and his conclusions are judicious and well supported by the evidence he presents. Richard Rigby, Professorial Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University In his concluding chapter, Irvine makes two valid points. The first is that, based on the evidence very expertly and concisely summarised in this overview, there is an urgent need for better predictive models. His second is that in predicting the future, we are, to some extent, trying to make what we say happen. We should be grateful for Irvine's book gently, but forcefully, making these failures so evident, and allowing for at least some attempt to rectify them. Kerry Brown, Director of the Lau China Institute and Professor of Chinese Studies at King's College, London - New Asia Books

It is fascinating to review the diverse forecasts that experts have made in recent years about China's politics, economy, environment, and international relations. How is it possible that they disagree so much? Irvine wisely counsels caution, insisting that we must allow critical uncertainties to temper our ambition to know the future. Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Columbia University In all the discussion over the implications of China's rise, one of the knottiest questions is just what sort of a China is it going to be. Roger Irvine offers a unique and path-breaking contribution to the task of forecasting China's role, with special attention paid to the relationship between China experts and the uncertainty that is intrinsic to this challenging but necessary enterprise. His balancing of theory with practical case studies of prediction across a variety of fields is exemplary, and his conclusions are judicious and well supported by the evidence he presents. Richard Rigby, Professorial Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

It is fascinating to review the diverse forecasts that experts have made in recent years about China's politics, economy, environment, and international relations. How is it possible that they disagree so much? Irvine wisely counsels caution, insisting that we must allow critical uncertainties to temper our ambition to know the future. Andrew J. Nathan, Class of 1919 Professor of Political Science, Columbia University In all the discussion over the implications of China's rise, one of the knottiest questions is just what sort of a China is it going to be. Roger Irvine offers a unique and path-breaking contribution to the task of forecasting China's role, with special attention paid to the relationship between China experts and the uncertainty that is intrinsic to this challenging but necessary enterprise. His balancing of theory with practical case studies of prediction across a variety of fields is exemplary, and his conclusions are judicious and well supported by the evidence he presents. Richard Rigby, Professorial Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Roger Irvine brings to this much needed overview of contemplating China's future...by (mostly) western based experts...a former government analyst's clarity and fair mindedness...In his concluding chapter, Irvine makes two valid points. The first is that, based on the evidence very expertly and concisely summarised in this overview, there is an urgent need for better predictive models. His second is that in predicting the future, we are, to some extent, trying to make what we say happen. We should be grateful for Irvine's book gently, but forcefully, making these failures so evident, and allowing for at least some attempt to rectify them. Kerry Brown, Director of the Lau China Institute and Professor of Chinese Studies at King's College, London - New Asia Books

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Roger Irvine is a Visiting Research Fellow at the University of Adelaide, South Australia. He was a visiting scholar at Tsinghua University, China during 2010 and at National Chengchi University, Taiwan during 2014.

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