Overview

This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that, with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the crisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based on the following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide academics and policymakers with important and practical knowledge: because negative shifts in the financial system precede recessions, financial indicators can predict the onset of a crisis much earlier than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model can predict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy’s sensitivity to the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economic growth and no true recessions.

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9783631876947

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Sebastian-Ilie Dragoe is an economist at the Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu who specializes in macrofinance. Financial markets, money theory, banking and finance institutions, and econometrics are among his other research interests. Camelia Oprean-Stan teaches and researches in the areas of finance in the Department of Finance and Accounting, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu. Her research interests also include capital markets, portfolio administration, and financial management.

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