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It takes a New England farmer to note and interpret the signs of coming storm on abeautiful and sunny day. Perhaps his power is due in part to natural sharpness, and in partto the innate pessimism of the Yankee mind, which considers the fact that the hay is cut butnot yet in the barn a sufficient reason for believing that it'll prob'ly rain t'morrow. I must confess that I had not enough of either of these qualities to be observant and fearfulof the presages of the oncoming tempest which lurked in the beautiful autumn and winterof 1913-14 in Europe. Looking back at them now, I can see that the signs were ominous.But anybody can be wise after the event, and the role of a reminiscent prophet is too easyto be worth playing.

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