Overview

This is a joint study involving five organisations from both the public and private sectors. The objective is to explore the future need for fertilizer required to support the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) projections of agricultural commodity production for 2015 and 2030. The paper begins by briefly reviewing attempts to identify and quantify the factors influencing the growth in demand and supply for agricultural commodities. Several studies that estimate long-term fertlizer use are also reviewed, followed by a discussion of the forecasting methods and data. The results and implications conclude the paper. The study projects growth rates of between 0.7 and 1.3 per cent, depending on assumptions about nutrient efficiency over the next 35 years

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