Overview

The Logistics Composite Model (LCOM) is a stochastic, discrete-event simulation that relies on probabilities and random number generators to model scenarios in a maintenance unit and estimate optimal manpower levels through an iterative process. Models such as LCOM involving pseudo-random numbers inevitably have a variance associated with the output of the model for each run, and the output is actually a range of estimates. The reduction of the variance in the results of the model can be costly in the form of time for multiple replications. The alternative is a range of estimates that is too wide to realistically apply to real-world maintenance units. This research explores the application of three different methods for reducing the variance of the model's output. The methods include Common Random Numbers (CRN), Control Variates, and Antithetic Variates. The differences in the 95% confidence intervals were compared between the variance reduction techniques and the original model to determine the degree of variance reduction. The result is a successful variance reduction in the primary output statistics of interest using the application of the Control Variates technique, as well as a methodology for the implementation of Control Variates in LCOM. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

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