Overview

The birth of the U.S. civil space program and the subsequent, dramatic growth in the ranks of the space science research population occurred in the 1950s and 1960s'. The large, post- Sputnik/ Apollo buildup in space program manpower is now approximately one career-lifetime in the past. It is therefore natural to anticipate that a large fraction of the space program engineers, scientists, and managers who pioneered the early exploration of space are approaching retirement. Such a retirement wave bodes both a loss of manpower and, more fundamentally, a loss of experience from the civil-space manpower base. Such losses could play a critical role constraining in NASA's ability to expand or maintain its technical capabilities. If this indeed applies to the NASA space science research population, then the potential for problems is exacerbated by the anticipated growth in flight rates, data volume, and data-set diversity which will accompany the planned expansion in the OSSA science effort during the 1990s and 2000s. The purpose of this study was to describe the OSSA PI/Co-I population and to determine the degree to which the OSSA space science investigator population faces a retirement wave, and to estimate the future population of PIs in the 1990-2010 era. To conduct such a study, we investigated the present demographics of the PI and Co-1 population contained in the NASA/OSSA Announcement of Opportunity (AO) mailing list. PIs represent the leadership class of the OSSA scientific researcher population, and Co-Is represent one important, oncoming component of the replacement generation. Using the PI population data, we then make projection estimates of the future PI population from 1991 through 2010, under various NASA growth/PI demand scenarios. Stern, S. Alan and Konkel, Ronald and Habegger, Jay and Byerly, Radford, Jr. Unspecified Center...

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