Overview

The effectiveness of policy decisions depends not only on the quality of the analysis but also on the communication between analyst and decision-maker. As a result, this text employs the following three-step decomposition of the decision modelling process throughout: (1) visual-structural modelling, (2) analytic-formal modelling, and (3) algorithmic resolution modelling. The 10 chapters address the most relevant issues in decision modelling in policy management: the problem-solving process; visual decision modeling; descriptive and normative preference elicitation; and aggregation methods, dealing with uncertainty in dynamic problems, social choices, conflict resolution, and constraint-optimization problems. Notable features of this text include: introduction of a visual approach to decision modelling in policy management (over 100 figures and illustrations), integrating the European School (outranking relations, dimension reduction, ordinal preferences, rank correlation) and the American School (utility theory, analytic hierarchy process, game theory, constraint-optimization); it presents analytic approaches in the context of structural, formal, and resolution modeling; references to further practical and theoretical readings; intuitive visual reasoning; detailed numerical examples replacing theorems and formal proofs; it discusses new decision analytical features: visual interactive preference ordering; dynamic plots in virtual negotiation; hypermedia influence diagram modelling; and it integrates 100 problems with worked-out solutions; an Internet syllabus with assignments, students comments, and Internet multimedia software are available.

Full Product Details

Author:   Giampiero Beroggi
Publisher:   Springer
Imprint:   Springer
Edition:   1999 ed.
Dimensions:   Width: 15.50cm , Height: 2.20cm , Length: 23.50cm
Weight:   1.550kg
ISBN:  

9780792383307

ISBN 10:   0792383303
Pages:   349
Publication Date:   31 October 1998
Audience:   College/higher education ,  Professional and scholarly ,  Undergraduate ,  Postgraduate, Research & Scholarly
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   In Print  
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Table of Contents

I: The Problem Solving Process.- 1. The Context of Problem Solving.- 2. Problem Identification: The Elements of Decision Making.- 3. Problem Definition.- 4. Problem Solution.- 5. Summary.- 6. Problems.- II: The Analytic Modeling Process.- 1. From Problem to Model.- 2. Structural Models.- 3. Formal Models.- 4. Resolution Models.- 5. Interactive Complete Strong Preference Ordering.- 6. Summary.- 7. Problems.- III: Descriptive Assessment — Criteria and Weights.- 1. Relative Intensities and Weights.- 2. Hierarchical Decomposition of Criteria.- 3. Aggregation of Criteria.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- IV: Descriptive Assessment — Alternatives and Ranking.- 1. Structural Model of Descriptive Approaches.- 2. Formal and Resolution Models.- 3. Sensitivity Analysis.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- V: Values and Normative Choice.- 1. The Structural Model.- 2. The Formal Model of Value Theory.- 3. The Resolution Model.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- VI: Choices Under Uncertainty.- 1. Decision Making Under Complete Uncertainty.- 2. Decision Making Under Risk.- 3. Summary and Further Readings.- 4. Problems.- VII: Uncertainty and Normative Choice.- 1. The Structural Model for Decision Making Under Uncertainty.- 2. The Formal Model of Utility Theory.- 3. The Resolution Model.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- VIII: Sequential Decision Making.- 1. The Structure of Sequential Decisions.- 2. The Formal Model.- 3. The Resolution Model.- 4. Sensitivity Analysis.- 5. Summary and Further Readings.- 6. Problems.- IX: Multi-Actor Decision Making.- 1. Structural Models in Multi-Actor Settings.- 2. Formal and Resolution Models in Group Decision Making.- 3. Formal and Resolution Models in Conflict Settings.- 4. Summary andFurther Readings.- 5. Problems.- X: Constraint-Based Policy Optimization.- 1. Structural Model.- 2. Formal Models.- 3. Resolution Models.- 4. Summary and Further Readings.- 5. Problems.- Solutions to Problems.- References.- Symbol Index.

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