Overview

Contemporary Intelligence Warning Cases presents lessons learned and recommendations for producers and users of intelligence warning in their joint venture to anticipate, prepare for, mitigate, and prevent future threats to national security. It presents and synthesizes the findings of 16 contemporary intelligence warning case studies undertaken by leading intelligence scholars and former intelligence practitioners. It is the first multi-case study of intelligence warning and adopts a uniquely broad and contemporary approach to the phenomenon, featuring both successful and failed cases. Consistent with the increasing complexity of intelligence problems and scope of intelligence services, it ranges from traditional warning problems such as invasions and wars, through terrorist attacks, to threats that lie beyond the traditional core scope of intelligence services such as pandemics, financial crises, climate change, strategic acquisitions and attacks on cultural heritage.

Full Product Details

Author:   Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning (Deputy Research Director and Deputy Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies, Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), Norway.) ,  Stig Stenslie (Research Director and Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies, Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), Norway.)
Publisher:   Edinburgh University Press
Imprint:   Edinburgh University Press
ISBN:  

9781399531894

ISBN 10:   1399531891
Pages:   376
Publication Date:   31 December 2024
Audience:   Professional and scholarly ,  College/higher education ,  Professional & Vocational ,  Postgraduate, Research & Scholarly
Format:   Hardback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   Temporarily unavailable  
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Table of Contents

List of Contributors Abbreviations Introduction: Warning – The Highest Purpose and Most Challenging Mission of Intelligence Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie 1. Punggye-ri, 2006 – North Korea’s First Nuclear Test Soo Kim 2. London, 2006 – The al-Qaeda Transatlantic Bomb Plot Michael S. Goodman 3. Tbilisi, 2008 – Russia Invades Georgia Daniela Richterova 4. Wall Street, 2008 – The Global Financial Crisis John A. Gentry 5. In Amenas, 2013 – Terrorists Attack Petroleum Interests Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning 6. Crimea 2014 – Russia’s Annexation of Crimea Tom Røseth & Tobias Sæther 7. Mosul 2014 – The Rise of ISIS Nikki Ikani 8. Palmyra, 2015 – ISIS Attacks Cultural Heritage Sites Zeynep Egeli & Lars Haugom 9. Paris 2015 – ISIS Attacks Paris Pauline Blistène 10. Kyiv, 2015 – Russia’s Cyber-Attack on Ukraine’s Power Grid Aaron Brantly 11. Wuhan, 2019 – A Global Pandemic Damien van Puyvelde 12. Capitol Hill, 2021 – Insurrection in Washington DC Stephen Coulthart 13. Bergen, 2021 – Russia’s Strategic Acquisition Bid on Bergen Engines AS Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning 14: Kabul, 2021 – The Taliban Overtakes Kabul Kristian Gustafson 15: Kyiv, 2022 – Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine Huw Dylan 16: Sindh, 2022 – Climate Change Floods in Pakistan Stig Stenslie Conclusion: Towards Better Warning – Lessons and Recommendations for Intelligence Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning & Stig Stenslie References Index

Reviews

Chock full of teachable lessons grounded in historical context and is particularly valuable for consumers of intelligence to help them understand that whether they have gotten the detailed tactical warning they'd prefer or not, their lot in life is to now make hard decisions under conditions of uncertainty and to understand that making no decision in the face of warning because of the absence of a more complete picture is a decision.--J. Paul Pope ""International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence"" This book is an important contribution to the study of intelligence warning. The wide selection of case studies is especially valuable, including not only cases of traditional warning such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also non-traditional warning of threats such as natural disasters, pandemics, and financial crises.--Erik J. Dahl, Naval Postgraduate School

This book is an important contribution to the study of intelligence warning. The wide selection of case studies is especially valuable, including not only cases of traditional warning such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also non-traditional warning of threats such as natural disasters, pandemics, and financial crises.--Erik J. Dahl, Naval Postgraduate School

Author Information

Bjørn Elias Mikalsen Grønning is Deputy Research Director and Deputy Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), Oslo. Stig Stenslie is Research Director and Head of the Centre for Intelligence Studies at the Norwegian Intelligence School (NORIS), and Professor at Oslo New University College, Oslo.

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