Overview

The scenario project on the future of mental health care focuses on this question: what developments are possible over the next two decades in the area of mental health and the associated need for care, what are their implications and to what extent can they be influenced? The project is thus concerned both with mental health problems and with specialized care services. The two topics do not full coincide, in that only a small proportion of mental health problems, perhaps 10-20%, receive specialized treatment. The investigation involves on the one hand a review of the literature and the data analysis and on the other, intensive consultations with panels of experts. The panels were formed around four themes, namely dementia, schizophrenia, occupational incapacity due to mental disorders, and emotional and behavioural problems in children and adolescents. The developments which the experts felt to be most likely over the next 20 years are brought together here in reference scenarios; other, very different trends, less likely but no less important, are covered in two alternative, exploratory scenarios for each theme. Objectives for the year 2010 which, though bold, are nevertheless viewed by the experts as attainable are set out in target-setting scenarios, indicating the measures and interventions needed for their achievement. In particular the target-setting scenarios set out the measures which need to be taken in the areas of diagnostic practice, prevention, training, treatment and care.

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