Overview

The decision to close a military base can generate both positive and negative effects on the local community. While research exists on the positive effects of Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC), such as the increase in federal funding or land reclamation, my thesis examines the effects a closure has on a community's crime rate. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy, I examine the differences in crime rates before and after a city had a BRAC relative to comparable control cities without such closures. First, I find significant declines in crime rates due to BRAC, for both property and violent crimes. Crime rates fall faster in BRAC cities compared to cities that do not experience a BRAC. Second, property crimes appear to fall faster than violent crimes due to a BRAC. Third, demographic and economic variables also have significant effects on particular types of property and violent crime. I. INTRODUCTION * A. PURPOSE OF STUDY * B. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS * C. METHODOLOGY * D. FINDINGS * 1. Property Crime * 2. Violent Crime * 3. Larceny * 4. Robbery * E. OVERVIEW OF CHAPTERS * II. BACKGROUND INFORMATION * A. FORCE STRUCTURE PLANNING * B. BASE REALIGNMENT AND CLOSURE * 1. The BRAC Process * 2. Force Distribution and Benefits * 3. 2005 BRAC Round * III. LITERATURE REVIEW * A. PARTICIPATION IN ILLEGITIMATE ACTIVITIES * B. DETERRENCE VARIABLES FROM THE COMMUNITY * C. FORECLOSURES, VACANT HOUSING, AND CRIME * D. POLICE BUDGETS AND CRIME * E. OTHER PREVIOUS RELATED LITERATURE * IV. DATA * A. THE UNIFORM CRIME REPORT * 1. Crime as a Dependent Variable * B. BRAC, TIME, AND THE VARIABLE TW AS A DD ESTIMATOR * C. INDEPENDENT VARIABLES * D. MODELS UTILIZED * V. RESULTS * A. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS * B. EFFECT OF BRAC ON CRIME * C. EFFECT OF BRAC ON PARTICULAR CRIMES * D. ROBUSTNESS CHECKS * VI. CONCLUSION * A. CONCLUSIONS FROM STUDY * B. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH * 1. Law Enforcement Manpower * 2. Foreclosure Data * 3. Military Population

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