Overview

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projection of slowing growth from such institutations as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. This text asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projects, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail.

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9780309069908

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Author Information

John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Editors; Panel on Population Projections, Committee on Population, National Research Council

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