Overview

New data and previous studies were used with quantitative analysis to assess Afghanistan's effect on water security in the Amu Darya river basin from 1995 to 2005. An event database constructed from open source news reporting and a geographic information system (GIS) of the basin combined to evaluate the basin's risk for water-related conflict relative to six factors: overall relations; population density, per capita income; freshwater treaty status; internationalization potential of the basin; and water development projects. The thesis evaluated the quantitative techniques employed for their utility in planning, executing, and assessing military operations in relation to water resources. Afghanistan's effect on water security marginally increased the risk of conflict over water while increasing non-water-related levels of cooperation among riparian neighbors. Population density and internationalization potential did not contribute to increased risk, but income level, treaty status, and development projects did contribute to increased risk for conflict. The techniques demonstrated their utility for military planners, principally at the operational and strategic levels as a tool for long-range assessment and monitoring. Tactical utility was found to be limited, but modifications to database and GIS layer development show potential for more use of the techniques in the tactical environment. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

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