Overview

There is a large body of research carried out suggesting the predictability of Stock markets. Initially, tests of predictability of stock market returns were motivated by market efficiency, where it is assumed that predictability was inconsistent with constant stock market returns, efficient markets paradigm. For long it was thought that stock markets are not predictable, at least in an economically significant manner Lo and Maculay in their research paper claim that stock prices do not follow random walks and suggested considerable evidence towards predictability of stock prices., Fama & French, Lakonishok, Schleifer & Vishney in their various studies have carried out many cross sectional analysis across the globe and tried to establish the predictability of the stock prices. Ferson & Harvey showed that predictability in stock returns are not necessarily due to market inefficiency or over-reaction from irrational investors but rather due to predictability in some aggregate variables that are part of the information set.

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