Overview

This paper serves as a transition piece between the Air Force 2025 and Blue Horizons futures studies, particularly in the area of study methodology. It reviews forecasting theory and methods to give the reader a general understanding of available long-term planning techniques. It analyzes the methodology used in Air Force 2025 and recommends changes for the follow-on study, Blue Horizons. With the retrospective advantage of a decade of past history, it evaluates Air Force 2025's alternate futures in terms of narrative, wildcards, and signposts. Finally, it assesses where the world of 2006 sits within the strategic planning space and where the world is trending. The paper concludes with five recommendations for Blue Horizons: 1) Institutionalize the futures process into Air Force long-range planning, complete with periodic reevaluations, 2) Use Air Force 2025 methodologies, with minor corrections, for Blue Horizons, 3) Reassess and update the key scenario drivers, 4) Use a Red Team to determine signposts for each of the worlds and use these markers for periodic reevaluation, and 5) Avoid including interim worlds in the study. This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important, and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work was reproduced from the original artifact, and remains as true to the original work as possible. Therefore, you will see the original copyright references, library stamps (as most of these works have been housed in our most important libraries around the world), and other notations in the work. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. As a reproduction of a historical artifact, this work may contain missing or blurred pages, poor pictures, errant marks, etc. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

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