Overview

As the war in Iraq draws to a close, the importance of U.S. indirect influence in the Middle East will increase. The large footprint of the U.S. military in the region since 2003 has proven unsustainable for the long term in terms of stress on the conventional Army, acceptability to the population of the Muslim world, and patience of the American public. Further, this large-scale conflict, and the focus it has required, has diminished American ability to conduct indirect operations elsewhere throughout the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility (CENTCOM AOR). Thus, hostile networks have unrestricted access to the Middle East, which threatens U.S. interests and the stability of the region. Regional engagement provides a means to increase partner nation capacity as well as enhance indirect U.S. influence, but the program may not currently be achieving optimized, strategically significant gains that SOF have been able to achieve during other operations. This research seeks to examine how Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT) might better conduct engagement through regionally coordinated persistent presence, and how to implement any suggested changes.This compilation includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.As the war in Iraq draws to a close, the importance of U.S. indirect influence in the Middle East will increase. Unlike post-war Germany or Korea, a large footprint of the U.S. military is unsustainable for the long term because of the stress on the conventional Army, acceptability to the population of the Muslim world, and patience of the American public. Further, the troops, money, and political capital required to prosecute wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have diminished American ability to conduct military operations elsewhere throughout the world, especially the Middle East. Correspondingly, hostile networks have increasing influence in the Middle East, which threatens U.S. policy goals and the stability of the entire region. The Theater Security Cooperation Program (TSCP) provides a means to increase partner nation capacity, as well as enhance indirect U.S. influence, but the program is underperforming in the Middle East due to over commitment to Major Theater Operations (MTO). While most of the U.S. military has focused on Afghanistan and Iraq, U.S. enemies are building and expanding their Middle Eastern networks to challenge regional U.S. security interests. By focusing on two countries, military engagement to traditional areas of responsibility (AOR) has decreased. This created a rapport vacuum that facilitates the growth of U.S. enemies. International terrorist organizations have become a franchise industry by extending ties to regional extremist groups through financing and training. Al Qaeda Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Iranian influence progressively increase their clout and control, thereby destabilizing or displacing U.S. allies and threatening U.S. security.

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9781693896903

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