Overview

This study uses the lens of history to elucidate barriers that have confounded a successful US strategy for Iran. This strategy blends pressure and engagement to overcome these barriers. Iran's perceptions and patterns have historical roots in a sense of Persian greatness, resentment of foreign influence, strategic Persian-Shiite loneliness, and the emergence of pragmatic national interest replacing revolutionary ideology. Analysis further demonstrates how Iran's unique characteristics, such as the populace and nature of the government, portend strategic vulnerabilities which can be used by US strategic planners. Recent US policies for Iran are evaluated to understand US perceptions and how these have contributed to an inability to deter Iran from developing nuclear weapons, proliferating terrorism, and destabilizing the region. A proposed strategy framework expounds upon key assumptions and identification of Iranian centers of gravity. A novel planning construct is created to develop the short- and long-term strategy for US relations with Iran. This study outlines a strategy based on potential vulnerabilities of Iran created by its history and the nature of the country itself. The short-term recommended strategy consists of a prioritized list of six components for creating pressure on Iran. The result of this pressure portends changes in Iran's behavior. Public diplomacy and a strategic communications effort are cross-cutting elements that tie together the components of the short-term strategy. Despite the proposed use of pressure, there are engagement aspects that allow exploitation of positive opportunities created by changes in Iran's behavior. The longterm strategy is comprised of a blend of changed assumptions and tailored goals implemented at a rate tied to improvements in US and Iranian relations. The strategy proposal outlined in this study should be implemented immediately to take advantage of current opportunities. Air University Press, Walker Papers No. 11

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Lt Col Charles A. Douglass is director of force protection for the US Central Command Air Forces (USCENTAF). He was awarded the bachelor's degree in public administration from Samford University, Birmingham, Alabama, and received his commission through the Air Force Reserve Officer Training Corps in 1987. Following tours as a security police shift commander at Whiteman AFB, Missouri, and Hahn AB, Germany, he was assigned as operations officer and later executive officer of the 78th Air Base Wing, Robins AFB, Georgia. He served as a flight commander at Squadron Officer School, Maxwell AFB, Alabama, before assignment as commander, 82nd Security Forces Squadron, Sheppard AFB, Texas. Lt Col Michael D. Hays is chief of the Strategy Division, 607th Air Operations Center, Osan AB, Korea. Born in Cleveland, Ohio, he graduated from Penn State University in 1988 with a bachelor of science degree in aerospace engineering and earned his commission through Officer Training School (OTS) that same year. He became a distinguished graduate of Specialized Undergraduate Navigator Training, Mather AFB, California, in September 1989, and was assigned as an EC-130H Compass Call navigator in the 43rd Electronic Combat Squadron, Sembach AB, Germany, deploying to Incirlik AB, Turkey, in support of Operation Desert Storm. He also served in the 37th Airlift Squadron, Rhein Main AB, Germany, as a C-130H air-drop navigator.

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