Overview

This study examines the role that NATO and the United States play in the security policies of Finland, Norway, and Sweden, and Russia's views on the activities of the Alliance and the United States along its northern flank. An analysis of the foreign and security policies of Finland, Norway, and Sweden indicates that these three countries view Russian activities in the region as a security threat. The study finds that NATO and the United States play a large role in the security calculations of Finland, Norway, and Sweden, while Russia considers the Alliance and the United States as threats to its national security. The study encompasses economic and political consideration; the historical context between Russia and Finland, Norway, and Sweden; and the current security policies of all four countries. It also analyzes NATO considerations, bilateral relations, and potential regional security implications. This study recommends that Norway continue to seek an increase in NATO activity in the region, while Finland and Sweden should seek NATO membership unless they are willing to combat potential Russian aggression alone. I. INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION * B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH * C. LITERATURE REVIEW * D. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES * E. RESEARCH DESIGN * F. THESIS OVERVIEW * II. BACKGROUND * A. ECONOMIC RELATIONS * B. POLITICAL ORGANIZATIONS * III. HISTORICAL CONTEXT * A. FINLAND * B. NORWAY * C. SWEDEN * D. RUSSIA * IV. SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS * A. FINLAND * B. NORWAY * C. SWEDEN * V. RUSSIA'S SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK * A. NATO * B. UNITED STATES * C. RUSSIA'S 21ST-CENTURY MILITARY CHANGES * D. RUSSIAN INTENTIONS * E. THE ARCTIC REGION * F. THE BALTIC SEA REGION * G. CONCLUDING ASSESSMENT * VI. CONCLUSION * A. SUMMARY * 1. Chapter II * 2. Chapter III * 3. Chapter IV * 4. Chapter V * B. ANALYSIS * 1. NATO Considerations * 2. Bilateral Considerations * 3. Potential Regional Security Implications * C. RECOMMENDATIONS * 1. Finland * 2. Sweden * 3. Norway * D. FINAL REFLECTIONS Chapter II gives a brief synopsis of some of the important aspects of the economic and political ties between Russia and Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Chapter III examines briefly the historical context of all four countries. This chapter will begin by examining the security relations of Finland, Norway, and Sweden with Russia. Each country has taken a different path, and that path helps explain how each country views its current security relations with Russia. The chapter will end with an examination of Russia's history. Outsiders have invaded Russia numerous times; this may help to explain Russia's negative approach to NATO enlargement. This chapter reviews Russia's acts of aggression in the 21st century as well as what lessons NATO nations and Finland and Sweden have taken from Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Chapter IV examines how Finland, Norway, and Sweden plan to modernize their military capabilities. This chapter will cover the role that NATO and bilateral relations play in the security policies of Finland, Norway, and Sweden, as well as the individual security concerns of each country. Chapter V considers the Russian perspective on the military and security activities of Finland, Norway, and Sweden and Russia's strategic goals and outlook concerning the Arctic. This chapter also includes a section on Russia's military modernization. Putin has used the military and threats of violence many times; understanding how Putin is modernizing Russia's military will help one understand the concerns of Finland, Norway, and Sweden.

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