Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best

Author:   Daniel Gardner ,  Professor Daniel Gardner (Weill Cornell Medical College)
Publisher:   Penguin Putnam Inc
ISBN:  

9780452297579


Pages:   320
Publication Date:   28 February 2012
Recommended Age:   From 18 years
Format:   Paperback
Availability:   In Print   Availability explained
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Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best


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Overview

"New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble ""Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.""—Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works   We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, ""hedgehogs"" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while ""foxes,"" who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate."

Full Product Details

Author:   Daniel Gardner ,  Professor Daniel Gardner (Weill Cornell Medical College)
Publisher:   Penguin Putnam Inc
Imprint:   Plume
Dimensions:   Width: 13.70cm , Height: 1.80cm , Length: 20.30cm
Weight:   0.272kg
ISBN:  

9780452297579


ISBN 10:   0452297575
Pages:   320
Publication Date:   28 February 2012
Recommended Age:   From 18 years
Audience:   General/trade ,  General
Format:   Paperback
Publisher's Status:   Active
Availability:   In Print   Availability explained
This item will be ordered in for you from one of our suppliers. Upon receipt, we will promptly dispatch it out to you. For in store availability, please contact us.

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Reviews

Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack. - The New York Times Book Review Hugely enjoyable. - James Harkin, Financial Times Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books. - Jonathan Beard, New Scientist A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear. - Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley


Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack. -- The New York Times Book Review Hugely enjoyable. -- James Harkin, Financial Times Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books. -- Jonathan Beard, New Scientist A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear. -- Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley


Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack. The New York Times Book Review Hugely enjoyable. James Harkin, Financial Times Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books. Jonathan Beard, New Scientist A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear. Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley


It's rare for a book on public affairs to say something genuinely new, but Future Babble is genuinely arresting, and should be required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them. Mark my words: if Future Babble is widely read, then within 3.7 years the number of overconfident predictions by self-anointed experts talking through their hats will decline by 46.2%, and the world will become no less than 32.1% wiser. <br>- Steven Pinker, Harvard College Professor of Psychology, Harvard University, and author of How the Mind Works and The Stuff of Thought <br> Well-researched, well-reasoned, and engagingly written. I'm not making any predictions, but we can only hope that this brilliant book will shock the human race, and particularly the chattering expert class, into a condition of humility about proclamations about the future. <br>- John Mueller, author of Overblown and Political Scientist, Ohio State University <br> As Yogi Berra observed, n


Gardner leaves plenty of prognosticators squirming on history's thumbtack. <br> - The New York Times Book Review <br><br> Hugely enjoyable. <br> -James Harkin, Financial Times <br><br> Gardner not only skewers the pundits who predicted constantly rising oil prices and a Japanese takeover of the world, he also explains why we buy their books. <br> -Jonathan Beard, New Scientist <br><br> A rare mix of superb scholarship and zesty prose . . . Future Babble will show you how to be a bit smarter than what you usually hear. <br> -Philip Tetlock, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley


Author Information

DAN GARDNER is the New York Times bestselling author of books about psychology and decision-making. His books have been published in 21 countries and 17 languages. In The Science of Fear, Gardner reveals why we so often worry about what we shouldn’t and don’t worry about what we should. The Guardian called it “an invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly.” In Future Babble, Gardner looks at the dismal record of expert forecasts and why we keep listening to overconfident pundits. Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker said it “should be required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them.” In Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, Gardner and co-author Philip Tetlock distill important lessons about forecasting, teamwork, and good judgment. Superforecasting was chosen as one of the best books of 2015 by The Economist, Bloomberg, and Amazon.

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