Overview

Given Moscow's revanchist foreign policy, its willingness to use military force to achieve its goals, and its annexation of Crimea in 2014, the strategic threat Russia presents to NATO's Allies in the Baltic region has become acute. The Alliance must find a means to deter Moscow from attempting a similar action in the former Soviet Baltic republics that are now NATO member states. This thesis has identified regional nuclear deterrence as the best means of addressing this threat, and it has answered the question: How, and to what extent, would the addition of U.S. sea- and ground-based non-strategic nuclear weapons strengthen the Alliance's deterrence and defense posture in Europe? Through a qualitative analysis of NATO's nuclear deterrence posture in Europe in the light of new challenges, including Russian air defenses, this thesis has found that the addition of a nuclear-capable cruise missile such as the Nuclear Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM-N), deployed on surface ships, would be an effective short-term solution to this problem and would be consistent with the Navy's distributed lethality concept for surface ships. Moreover, to enhance the Alliance's long-term regional deterrent, a short-range ground-based dual-capable ballistic missile could usefully complement the TLAM-N. I. INTRODUCTION * A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION * B. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE RESEARCH QUESTION * C. LITERATURE REVIEW * D. POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS AND HYPOTHESES * E. RESEARCH DESIGN * F. THESIS OVERVIEW * II. AN ANALYSIS OF U.S. EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE FOR NATO * A. INTRODUCTION * B. THE EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE CONCEPT * C. THE COLD WAR * D. POST-SOVIET NATO NUCLEAR POLICY (1991-2009) * E. 2010 STRATEGIC CONCEPT TO THE DDPR * F. RUSSIAN AGGRESSION * G. CONCLUSION * III. MODIFYING THE U.S. EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENCE POSTURE IN EUROPE * A. INTRODUCTION * B. THESIS * C. RUSSIA'S TURN AGAINST THE WEST * D. GEORGIA 2008 * E. THE NEW LOOK REFORMS * F. UKRAINE * G. THE RUSSIAN THREAT IN THE BALTIC REGION * H. THE RAND STUDY * I. UPGRADING NATO'S EXTENDED NUCLEAR DETERRENT * J. THE BEST OPTIONS * K. TLAM-N * L. SRBM * IV. CONCLUSION

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